Boston Bruins

What NHL Network Got Right And Wrong About David Pastrnak In List Of Top Wingers

Published

2 months ago

August 16, 2024

AP Photo/Karl B DeBlaker

David Pastrnak is one of the NHL’s top goal-scorers and is highly regarded as one of the best wings in the entire league. But perhaps not as highly as some here in Boston may think.

In its list of the Top 20 wingers in the NHL right now, NHL network ranked the Boston Bruins star fourth behind Nikita Kucherov of the Tampa Bay Lightning, Matthew Tkachuk of the Florida Panthers, and Mikko Rantanen of the Colorado Avalanche.

Introducing the Top 20 Wings Right Now!

What are your thoughts on our list?@NHL | #NHLTopPlayers pic.twitter.com/8HIrTkNSPp

— NHL Network (@NHLNetwork) August 14, 2024

Whether you believe Pastrnak is ranked too high or too low, there is plenty of room for debate over where he falls in the rankings.

After combing through the numbers and also taking some other criteria into consideration, it seems that while the list is flawed, it’s not wildly off-base, either.

Here’s what NHL Network got right and wrong about Pastrnak.

Kucherov Is Better, But Only With Help:

Pastrnak may have put together an impressive campaign last year with 110 points, but he was a far cry from Kucherov, who lit up the league as its leading scorer with 144 points to earn the prestigious Art Ross Trophy.

Although Pastrnak does have the edge as a goal-scorer–and once again has some of the best NHL odds to win the Rocket Richard Trophy this season–Kucherov has proved to be equally lethal at both shooting and passing the puck. His 100 assists last year were tied with Connor McDavid for the league lead and 11 more than any other player.

However, while the players’ counting stats are what first draws the eye, there is something to be said when looking at those numbers in context.

Kucherov benefitted greatly from playing alongside other players who are highly dangerous on offense. According to Moneypuck.com, the line that Kucherov most often skated on with Brayden Point and Brandon Hagel generated 19.1 xGoals For, which was 28th in the league among forward lines.

Meanwhile, Pastrnak’s most often-used line, which featured Pavel Zacha and Danton Heinen, had just nine xGoals For and wasn’t even the most dangerous trio in the Bruins’ lineup.

As far as each player goes as an individual, it’s clear who makes a greater impact. Over the last three seasons, no player has been more dominant when on the ice than Pastrnak, whose 2,005 individual Corsi is the most of any player during that span, according to Natural Stat Trick.

Nevertheless, Pastrnak will still have a hard time keeping pace with Kucherov this upcoming year.

Even though Pastrnak should see a jump in production from the addition of Elias Lindholm in Boston, Kucherov has a new running mate as well after the Lightning brought in elite sniper Jake Guentzel as one of the more surprising moves of the offseason.

Tkachuk Produces When It Matters Most:

This is by no means an insult, but of any player at the top of this list, Tkachuk is the least skilled of the bunch.

However, he still ranks so highly because he makes an impact in so many other ways.

Tkachuk is a complete, 200-foot player. Whether he is a forechecker on the offensive end or a penalty killer on defense, there isn’t a phase of the game that he doesn’t affect.

He’s big, mean, and physical, equally able to put you through the boards with a ferocious hip check as he is to score a highlight reel goal. If you think about it, there really isn’t another player like him in the league right now, maybe other than his brother Brady.

But what truly makes Tkachuck the player he is is his ability to produce when it matters most.

Tkachuk seems to only get better in the postseason and is a large part of the reason why the Panthers have been a buzzsaw in May and June over the last few years.

The Bruins know that to be true better than anybody.

In their last two playoff series against Florida, the Bruins surrendered a combined 16 points to Tkachuk in 13 games, while Pastrnak mustered only eight.

Not only did Tkachuk beat Pastrnak on the stat sheet, but he did so in the literal sense and now, once again, in these rankings.

Pasta vs tkachuk pic.twitter.com/Sv4vtVCCOG

— Tony X (@soIoucity) May 9, 2024

Rantanen Ranked Too High:

While there’s an argument to make for Kucherov and Tkachuk, it’s hard to find one that justifies placing Rantanen above Pastrnak.

Make no mistake: Rantanen is an excellent player who deserves to be in the top half of these rankings and gets overlooked far too often. But neither the numbers nor the eye test say he’s a better player than Pastrnak.

The two are both prolific goal scores who possess elite-quality shots that allow them to fire pucks at will from anywhere on the ice.

They are especially deadly from the faceoff circle on the man advantage, a spot from which they’ve made a living throughout their careers. Over the last three years, the two are neck in power-play goals, with Pastrnak holding a slight advantage with 45 in that span compared to Rantanen’s 43.

However, a discrepancy begins to appear when examining their production at even strength.

In that same time frame, Pastrnak has a comfortable lead with 103 goals at five-on-five compared to Rantanen, who has only 90.

You then, once again, must consider who each player shares the ice with.

Similar to the case with Kucherov, Rantanen has much more help at his disposal than Pastrnak. But, unlike Kucherov, Pastrnak, and even Tkachuk, for that matter, Rantanen is not the player on his line that draws the most attention from opposing defenses during a shift.

To no fault of his own, Rantanen benefits from playing with arguably the best player in the league, Nathan MacKinnon.

In over 1,000 minutes played together last year, Rantanen and MacKinnon generated 4.17 goals for per 60 minutes, according to Natural Stat Trick. When you take away MacKinnon and leave Rantanen on his own, that number drops to 2.06, while removing Rantanen has the inverse effect, resulting in an increase to 5.02.

As for Pastrnak’s typical line, he, Zacha, and Heinen generated 5.4 GF/60 as a trio for the Bruins. Without Pastrnak on the ice, Zacha and Heinen managed a feeble 1.22 GF/60.

When comparing Pastrnak to Rantanen, it’s clear to see which player is driving the play each shift and which one is simply along for the ride.